// LIVE
The Desk.
A live record of positions, theses I am tracking, and books on the desk. Updated as it changes.
POSITIONS
LONGDefense sector basket
LONGGold (physical + miners)
SHORTUAE secondary real estate
WATCHFrontier sovereign debt
ON THE DESK
The Anatomy of Fascism
Robert PaxtonACTIVE · 60% IN
Discourses on Livy
MachiavelliACTIVE · 30% IN
Capital in the Twenty-First Century
PikettyQUEUED
Antifragile
Nassim TalebRE-READ
THESES TRACKED
01
Sovereign capital is the new private equity.
Gulf and Singapore wealth funds are doing what the big buyout shops did from 2005 to 2015. The flows are quieter, more strategic, and more political.
02
Education will collapse before it adapts.
Degree economics break before pedagogy reforms. Serious students will route around the institution before the institution gets fixed.
03
Defensive economies become attractive again.
The reversal of decades of globalization compresses risk premiums on stable jurisdictions. The quiet, well-run states set the global default rate.