— THE DESK —
What I am thinking about now.
A live record of open positions, theses I am tracking, books on the desk, charts I am watching. Updated quarterly. Last refresh: Q1 MMXXVI.
OPEN POSITIONS04
LONGDefense sector basket●●●●○
LONGGold (physical + miners)●●●●●
SHORTUAE secondary real estate●●●○○
WATCHFrontier sovereign debt●●○○○
CONVICTION ●●●●○ · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
THESES IN MOTION03
Sovereign capital is the new private equity.
UAE, Saudi, and Singapore wealth funds are doing what KKR and Blackstone did from 2005 to 2015. The flows are quieter, more strategic, and more political. Watch ADQ and Mubadala.
Education will collapse before it adapts.
University degree economics break before pedagogy reforms. The MicroVault thesis: serious students will route around the institution before the institution gets fixed.
Defensive economies become attractive again.
Reversal of 2008 to 2020 globalization compresses risk premiums on stable jurisdictions. The UAE, Switzerland, Singapore set the global default rate.
ON THE DESKREADING
The Anatomy of Fascism · Robert Paxton
[ACTIVE · 60% IN]
Discourses on Livy · Machiavelli
[ACTIVE · 30% IN]
Capital in the Twenty-First Century · Piketty
[QUEUED]
Antifragile · Nassim Taleb
[RE-READ · DEC MMXXV]
CHARTS WATCHING04
M2 / GOLD
+12.4%
DXY · 1Y
-3.2%
DFM · INDEX
+8.1%
10Y YIELD
4.32%